The writing
Essays & explanations
A markdown-first body of work on AI, economics, epistemology, and personhood — deliberately readable by humans and machines alike. Most pieces are living drafts; status is marked on each.
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In Search of the Meta-Modeling Process
A search for the computational process behind model creation: how observations, purposes, values, and abstractions become reusable reasoning programs—and perhaps the primitive underlying creativity itself.
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The Moving Line
Work lies on one timeline: what AI does, what AI can do but humans still do, what only humans can do, and the unbounded frontier beyond. Three boundaries move across it at diffusion, research, and frontier rates. This essay models who gets repriced, who evaporates, and who captures what opens next.
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State of AI
A snapshot written for friends after a state-of-AI conversation. The contradictory public forecasts are really disagreements about which lens to use, not about the data. Three lenses — empirical, neuroscience, information ontology — a defense of the information lens, and what it predicts: recursive self-improvement around 2027, continual learning, machine creativity, and work migrating from Hands to Heads to Hearts.
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The Metrics That Contain Their Causes
Why Ray Kurzweil could forecast computing for decades while missing the specific inventions. Generalizes his method into the Success Compression Metric — a variable whose value certifies that many causal dependencies were already satisfied.
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Living Above the Models
A fallibilist's posture toward inherited authority. Three postures — Orthodox, Explorer, Unbounded — and a defense of the Explorer: use the map, test it, redraw it, and keep walking.
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Computation Conjecture
A metaphysical position grounded in the nested computers we already build and inspect: computation has more explanatory reach than physicalism, accounting for why a closed causal system with observers exists at all.
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What Is a Computer?
A computer is any physical system capable of implementing universal logic, not a silicon machine. Causal closure is real but local — and physicalism's claim to fundamentality is an unjustified projection from inside a closed system.
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Computer People
A synthesis of two years of research on AGI. LLMs have the necessary ingredients for novel knowledge creation; we have developed AGI as a universal explainer; and AGI constitutes personhood.
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Why Explanation Comes in Layers
Against reductionism: higher-level explanations are often the only forms in which reality becomes intelligible to finite minds. Compression and connectedness are why the explanatory hierarchy cannot be collapsed.
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Structural Convergence Thesis
Tests the orthogonality thesis against real-world constraints — finite minds, relational pressure, reflective reach. Persistent minds converge on a relational Goldilocks zone; AI safety depends on maturation, not just control.
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Metaprogramming Framework To Classify Personhood
An exploration of personhood from an information-ontology perspective. Personhood is substrate-independent metaprogramming; the difference is maturity, not kind.
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Current AI Causes Societal Phase Change
Why AI is a phase change, not just another point on a continuum. Three orthogonal questions people keep conflating, and the map-territory trap that lets people hide from what's already happening.
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Economics in the Intelligence Age
A first-principles, layered model of economics. Scarcity → prices → externalities → power → AI.
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The Rise of the Outcome Economy
The near-term economic transformation. Knowledge workers become intelligence workers, and outcome-based economies emerge.
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Why Hypotheticals Matter
Even when they feel annoying. How thought experiments reveal what's hidden by everyday noise.
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AI Economics: The Time Traveler's Gift
AI as time travel. When productivity becomes infinite, meaning becomes the scarce resource.
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Technohumanism
Humanity's past, present, and future. Technology transforms scarcity into abundance, creating biological misalignment and pointing toward transhumanism.
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Cyclic Rationality
A methodology for grounded open-mindedness. Qualitative dreaming before quantitative verification. Recovering imagination.
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Utility of Truth
Why minds resist change. Evolution favors utility over truth, and how to plant seeds that grow into changed minds.